The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) this week voted to keep the UK base rate at a record low of 0.5%. Minutes of the meeting revealed of vote of 8-1 in favour of no change, with the lone dissenter voting for a rate hike. Although they recognised that domestic demand and consumer spending remained resilient they were, like the US Federal Reserve in September, conscious of the current global slowdown.

The MPC were also aware that inflationary pressure appears unlikely to raise its head soon, with the consumer price index (CPI) at 0% and recognising that since the August meeting the outlook for inflation had weakened. It is now predicted that CPI will stay below 1% until spring 2016.

The MPC were cognisant that deterioration in the global demand environment would slow the pace of expansion further. The committee will continue to monitor international developments, as well as evidence concerning the resilience of the domestic economy, to assess the outlook for inflation and activity.

On the back of these comments that market has pushed back the predicted timing of an interest rate rise further, now looking like late 2016. If we cast our eyes back to this time this year, the market was of the opinion that the Bank of England would raise in March 2015.

With so many changing variables, many of which have proven unpredictable, it would appear nothing much can be set in stone!